Good Will Blogging

Jan 07

iPad 2S

The next iPad will not be iPad 3. It will be iPad 2S.

Apple has established the pattern already with iPhone: after the original iPhone, there was a significant external hardware design change in the second generation, iPhone 3G. The third generation iPhone retained the exact same external hardware design as the second generation, and got the name “iPhone 3GS”. This was repeated with the new design of iPhone 4, inherited by the iPhone 4S.

The first generation hardware was not repeated, and served almost as a prototype. From the second generation, the hardware design lasts two product cycles — two years.

I would not be the first to speculate that this is related to the costs of manufacturing machinery and processes. Apple sees its competitive lead as being more than 2 years anyway, so why waste resources re-tooling its plants every year?

So far, the iPad seems to be following the same pattern: the second generation got a significant external hardware design change. Apple’s product naming strategy for iPad may differ from iPhone, meaning Apple may choose to name the next iPad “3”, but I predict the external hardware design will be exactly the same as iPad 2.

Note that this does not discount the possibility of a Retina Display. A double-resolution display does not affect the external design. It will certainly require different internals, but I’m only talking about the external design here — both the iPhones 3GS and 4S had huge internal upgrades.

So here are my predictions for the next iPad, just for fun:

Name: iPad 2S.
Form factor: Exactly the same as iPad 2.
Screen: 9.7-inch diagonal; 2048 x 1536 resolution at 264 ppi. (This will qualify as “Retina Display” by way of typical viewing distance.)
Storage: 32 GB, 64 GB, and 96 GB.
Chip: Next-gen (“A6”?) dual-core SoC; improved graphics.
Cameras: At most, a modestly improved rear camera.
Software: Siri support; a point upgrade to iOS, probably “5.2”; more iCloud-based features; and at least one new feature that doesn’t work outside the US.
Release date: 16th March, 2012.
Price: USD $499 for 32 GB WiFi model; $829 for 96 GB WiFi + 3G model.

UPDATE: Since iOS 5.1 still hasn’t been released, I expect it will with the new iPad announcement. Also, it looks like the new chip will be named “A5X”, which leads me to think the name of the new iPad will be “iPad 2X”.