Good Will Blogging
How do you like them apples...

The next iPad will not be iPad 3. It will be iPad 2S.

Apple has established the pattern already with iPhone: after the original iPhone, there was a significant external hardware design change in the second generation, iPhone 3G. The third generation iPhone retained the exact same external hardware design as the second generation, and got the name “iPhone 3GS”. This was repeated with the new design of iPhone 4, inherited by the iPhone 4S.

The first generation hardware was not repeated, and served almost as a prototype. From the second generation, the hardware design lasts two product cycles — two years.

I would not be the first to speculate that this is related to the costs of manufacturing machinery and processes. Apple sees its competitive lead as being more than 2 years anyway, so why waste resources re-tooling its plants every year?

So far, the iPad seems to be following the same pattern: the second generation got a significant external hardware design change. Apple’s product naming strategy for iPad may differ from iPhone, meaning Apple may choose to name the next iPad “3”, but I predict the external hardware design will be exactly the same as iPad 2.

Note that this does not discount the possibility of a Retina Display. A double-resolution display does not affect the external design. It will certainly require different internals, but I’m only talking about the external design here — both the iPhones 3GS and 4S had huge internal upgrades.

So here are my predictions for the next iPad, just for fun:

• Name: iPad 2S.
• Form factor: Exactly the same as iPad 2.
• Screen: 9.7-inch diagonal; 2048 x 1536 resolution at 264 ppi. (This will qualify as “Retina Display” by way of typical viewing distance.)
• Storage: 32 GB, 64 GB, and 96 GB.
• Chip: Next-gen (“A6”?) dual-core SoC; improved graphics.
• Cameras: At most, a modestly improved rear camera.
• Software: Siri support; a point upgrade to iOS, probably “5.2”; more iCloud-based features; and at least one new feature that doesn’t work outside the US.
• Release date: 16th March, 2012.
• Price: USD $499 for 32 GB WiFi model; $829 for 96 GB WiFi + 3G model.

UPDATE: Since iOS 5.1 still hasn’t been released, I expect it will with the new iPad announcement. Also, it looks like the new chip will be named “A5X”, which leads me to think the name of the new iPad will be “iPad 2X”.

The API for developers to interact with Siri will be in the cloud.

Siri requests are processed in the cloud, so the shortest path from Siri to apps is within iCloud.

This will require apps to be integrated with iCloud. Siri API will be a part of the iCloud API.

How this could work:

• An iPhone user speaks to Siri.
• Siri in the cloud deciphers the user’s speech, and figures out that the user wants a service from app X.
• Siri invokes the iCloud API of app X. App X responds with some text, an image, and/or a URL that their iPhone app has registered.
• iCloud returns this data to the iPhone, and Siri speaks the text, displays the image, and/or jumps to the developer’s app on the device.

What I haven’t figured out yet is how developers will register their apps to be invoked for certain phrases. Seems incredibly broad. And how will competing apps register to receive the same invocations?

It’s going to be very interesting.